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BANKING ON EL NIÑO
From coast to coast, resort managers have been rubbing their lucky rabbits’ feet, hoping that predictions of an El Niño lasting through the winter of 2009-10 hold true, and that El Niño lives up to its reputation for bringing big snow to many parts of the country.

Some resorts are marketing El Niño to sell season’s passes and inspire skiers and riders to start making their winter plans early in the fall. “El Niño Prospects Make Mountain High's $299 Anytime Season Pass a ’Best Buy,’” declared one press release. Winter Park urged guests to “think ahead for lodging.” We’re optimistic, too, but wonder if skiers and riders won’t see all this as a snow job.

We don’t want to throw cold water on resorts’ hopes, so we’ll let ski fanatic and überstatsman Tony Crocker do it. On his website, Crocker writes that, historically, El Niño’s effects are negligible at ski resorts across a wide swath of the central and northern U.S. Those with the most to gain, historically speaking, are: Brian Head, Utah, Arizona Snowbowl, and all of southern California. Taos and Mammoth/June also do relatively well in El Niño years.

Being “glass half full” guys and gals ourselves, we take faith in the prescience of AccuWeather.com's chief meteorologist and expert long range forecaster Joe Bastardi, who, after a cool 2006 summer and with the onset of El Niño, correctly predicted the cold and snowy 2006-07 winter for the Northeast. Hey, there’s no harm in being optimistic.


FALLOUT FROM THE CREDIT CRISIS
Most resorts have managed to survive the credit crisis, but not all. Relatively young resorts such as Moonlight Basin and Tamarack, both highly dependent on real-estate sales and with big fat loans from Wall Street, were in or near bankruptcy at press time. It was nigh impossible to reach anyone regarding Tamarack, for which several bids were placed in June, so a deal there could be close. In a positive sign, the golf course and zipline at Tamarack opened in July, after the lender realized that was a better option than foreclosing on the golf course (which is owned separately from Tamarack Resort itself). Lehman Bros., lead lender for Moonlight, was said to be preparing to foreclose on the resort, but also to provide funding for it to open this winter. With little time for marketing, though, that sounds like an uphill battle.

Another resort that could feel the pinch: Burke Mountain, Vt., part of the vast and fast-crumbling Ginn empire. Ginn has had to sell some of its golf resorts, and its proposed resort at Battle Mountain near Minturn, Colo., is on hold. Ginn upgraded services at Burke in preparation for the high-end Bridgemor real estate development, but that’s on hold, too. Can Ginn, saddled with its financial problems elsewhere, continue to operate Burke at the same level?


WINTER PARK SKI TRAIN NOT DEAD YET
It’s a longshot, but the owner of the Rio Grande Scenic Railroad in southern Colorado has proposed to replace the old Winter Park Ski Train with a new version. Owner Edwin Ellis and his Iowa Pacific have a fleet of modern, higher-capacity cars that provide passenger-rail excursions in summer, but are largely idle in winter. Ellis sees an obvious fit.

However, any new operator of the Denver-to-Winter Park route will have to convince Union Pacific, which owns the track and operates freight trains on the route, to interrupt this profitable stream for the Ski Train. Winter Park supports the idea, of course, and so does Gov. Bill Ritter. So it could come to pass. If so, this would be the 70th year for the Ski Train, as it is for the resort itself. At press time, Winter Park was in “no comment” mode, which probably means negotiations were at a sensitive stage. (There was a lot of that going on in mid-August.)


“DON'T MOVE FIREWOOD” CAMPAIGN EXPANDS
The "Don't Move Firewood" campaign, designed to prevent the spread of invasive pests and diseases through moving firewood, has reportedly reached more than 6 million people, and the campaign continues to grow. And that’s good news. As resorts across the West have learned in dealing with bark beetles, the bugs are quite capable of spreading on their own.

In case you never got the memo, moving firewood is a common cause of disease outbreaks that have killed trees in urban areas. That’s why most states in the Northeast and Midwest have firewood movement restrictions in place. The campaign launched in July 2008 with a variety of ads, PSAs, news articles, and support from a mix of public institutions and private industries, including winter resorts. In the coming year there will be a documentary about the destruction of trees in Worcester, Mass., as well as more PSAs and a new information resource at invasivepests.org. This is one battle the good guys can win.


CHEER UP: YOU COULD BE IN RETAIL
While resorts weathered the economic tsunami last winter, the retail side of winter sports was less fortunate. Retailers discounted prices more and sold less last season, resulting in less cash flow to pay for 2009-10 season’s orders. SIA says that Alpine ski equipment orders are down more than 20 percent and snowboard equipment declined more than 30 percent. To add to their woes, retailers face a very difficult credit market, with interest rates poised to rise rapidly. The near bankruptcy of CIT, a major creditor to small businesses (including the sports industry) could well result in exorbitantly high interest rates and difficulty getting terms other than “net 30” into the foreseeable future. Historically, the winter sports business has worked on much longer dating. What this all means: the gear lust that has often driven skiers and riders in the past will be muted this year.


INDOOR SLOPES REMAIN ELUSIVE IN U.S.
While snow domes have opened from New Zealand to Dubai, every attempt to develop one in the U.S. has failed. The slope at Meadowlands Xanadu is tantalizingly close; the lifts are in and the snowmaking was tested last month. But the complex itself hasn’t opened, and won’t open until sometime in 2010. That’s if the opening date is not again postponed, as it has been several times already.

Surely there’s a dome in America’s future. The latest candidate: the Texas Alps, part of the unlikely-sounding $1.6 billion Gardens of Grapevine Development, a multi-use center including retail, residential, office and entertainment space near Fort Worth, Texas. The developer plans to begin construction this year, and complete the project by July 2011. However (here we go again) the developer doesn’t have his final permits yet. Assuming those are obtained, the un-Texas-sized Alp will boast a 600-foot slope, ice climbing, and a luge track. Yes, a luge track.


TAKING A STAND FOR AND AGAINST GLOBAL WARMING
Global warming has been a contentious issue for decades, but with a sweeping climate change bill working its way through Congress, the politics are heating up even more. Case in point: NSAA offered to circulate a letter of support for the bill for resorts to sign. The letter would then go to key Senators. NSAA had arranged similar letters of support during two previous sessions of Congress. This time, though, following the passage of the Waxman/Markey Climate Change bill in the house and imminent consideration in the Senate, the plot thickened. Dick Kun, owner of Bear Mountain, Snow Summit and Sierra Summit in California, requested that NSAA also circulate a letter in opposition to the Waxman/Markey bill. So NSAA will likely be submitting letters on both sides of the issue. NSAA had planned to make the letter(s) available in August, but given the unsettled state of the bill in the Senate, will wait until the bill takes shape before offering members to take a stand on it. Not that the details are likely to change many minds.


DISC GOLF SCORES BIG WITH RESORTS
What’s the big deal with disc golf? When we saw that Okemo, Vt., had just opened a course, we felt it was time to get the 411.

Turns out that disc golf is cheap fun, and a great way to lure summer visitors. It also nudges those who have purchased a condo to come up for a summer visit.

As you might imagine, disc golf is not a huge direct revenue source. Okemo charges $2 per, or $5 with rental of a 3-disc set of driver, mid-range, and putter. On the other hand, course construction costs are negligible, and guests wind up buying food, lodging, and generally using the facilities in summer.

And the sport is, like, huge. One out of every five rounds of golf played this year will be disc golf, according to the Professional Disc Golf Assn. Unlike “ball golf,” disc golf rounds have been growing about 12 to 15 percent a year, for more than 15 years.

Disc golf is already established in dozens of ski areas, from Mt. Bachelor and Mt. Hood Skibowl in Oregon, to Beaver Creek and Aspen, to Hyland Hills, Giants Ridge, Crystal and Boyne in the Midwest, and to Sugarbush, Bretton Woods, and Wildcat in the East. Who knew?