SAM Magazine—Winter Park, Colo., Dec. 13, 2023—Modest snowfall across much of the West and rate-sensitive customers weary of high prices combined to bring down on-the-books occupancy (and some daily rates) for the full winter season, according to DestiMetrics, the Business Intelligence division of Inntopia, in its most recent Monthly Market Briefing. Rates, in fact, are declining year-over-year in some markets for the first time since the restricted 2020-21 season.

The report also noted that several peak holiday periods are falling behind where they have been at this time for the past two years, with the exception of this year's early Easter holiday.

DestiMetrics data are drawn from approximately 28,000 lodging units in 17 mountain destinations across Colorado, Utah, California, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho.

Occupancy in November dropped 6 percent compared to a year earlier, and the average daily rate (ADR) rose a meager 0.2 percent.

As of Nov. 30, on-the-books occupancy for the winter season, November through April, was down 3 percent compared to the prior year, with declines in five of the six months ranging from 2 to 6 percent. April is up 1.4 percent. ADR for the winter is up a slight 2.3 percent, with increases in all months except December and April. 

When compared to the pre-pandemic season of 2019-20, winter occupancy is up 1.3 percent, with gains in all months except November. ADR is up 43.3 percent for the season to deliver a 45.2 percent increase in revenues compared to four years ago.

That rise in ADR may have hit its ceiling. “We’re seeing that properties holding onto higher daily rates are experiencing weakening demand,” said Tom Foley, senior vice president of business intelligence for Inntopia. “We’re clearly seeing that the rate-sensitivity that dominated during the summer season is carrying into winter. Even with good economic news, properties are needing to pull back on rate to drive occupancy.”

Foley noted that consumer sentiment is weighing on bookings. The Consumer Confidence Index rose in November for the first time since July, but remained below its 23-month average. In addition, the Consumer Sentiment Index, conducted by the University of Michigan, declined and is also hovering slightly below its 23-month average.

“When those metrics are struggling, as they have been recently, rates and pricing become more consumer-centric,” Foley said.

Foley cautioned that snowfall, always a crucial part of the equation, becomes even more critical when economic or social conditions create consumer hesitancy for discretionary spending like travel.

While the booking pace slowed in November—down 7.2 percent for the full season compared to one year ago—bookings made notable gains for the final two months of winter, with March up 3.6 percent and April up 20.1 percent. 

Nonetheless, this marks the third booking pace decline in the past four months. The most dramatic drops were for bookings made for arrivals in November, down 18.3 percent, and December, down 14.9 percent. 

The decrease is partially due to strong booking volume last year at this time, but also to this season's sketchy early snowfall, a changing holiday school break schedule, and continued rate sensitivity.

Of course, the season could yet pick up momentum, despite the many variables. “The one dynamic that we anticipate continuing for the coming months is rate sensitivity, while the economy and Mother Nature shape consumer willingness to spend on discretionary purchases like travel,” Foley concluded.