SAM Magazine—Denver, Aug. 16, 2019—At the halfway point of summer, lodging properties in mountain destinations are enjoying a strong overall seasonal performance, largely even with a year ago. The year-over-year growth figures of the past decade, though, are gone, according the monthly DestiMetrics Market Briefing.

The 18 destinations across six western states tracked in the Briefing reported a slight recovery from last month’s figures. However, as of July 31, occupancy was down 2.3 percent compared to the same May through July period last summer, and aggregated occupancy remained down for the six-month summer season.

Occupancy in the month of July dipped 0.3 percent compared to July 2018 but a 2.6 percent increase in the average daily rate (ADR) led to a 2.3 percent revenue rise.

Actual and projected occupancy is down in five of the six summer months, with only September showing a slight uptick compared to last year—a modest 1.6 percent. October is tracking down seven percent from this time last year.

Revenues are a different story: ADR is up an aggregated 3.4 percent. Combined with the decline in occupancy, lodging properties are eking out a 0.9 percent increase in revenues for the summer.

“Over the past 10 years we’ve enjoyed a summer season with room rate and revenue gains that have been consistently outpacing economic growth,” reported Tom Foley, senior vice president of Business Operations and Analytics for Inntopia. Those trends could be coming to an end.

And maybe not. The first look at bookings made in July for the next six months reveal a more optimistic picture. July bookings for arrivals in July through December are up an aggregated 9.8 percent compared to the same time last year. The most striking July booking figures were for arrivals in the month of October, down 13.7 percent, and in December, up an impressive 24.7 percent. Memories of excellent snow conditions last December are fueling the growth in the coming December.

Foley cautions that the latest gyrations in the stock market, which turned sour in August, could make this growth fleeting if travelers postpone decisions until the market stabilizes.

Even before the market's stumbles, he noted, consumers were resisting higher room rates. “Even the relatively modest rate growth in 2019 is pushing year-over-year occupancy down. We’re monitoring how rate pressure, inventory pressure, consumer pushback on rising rates, and erratic market forces are combining to create some slight cooling on a decade of impressive growth in mountain lodging,” Foley said.