SAM Magazine—Winter Park, Colo., Nov. 15, 2024—The pace and pattern of early bookings at Western mountain destinations is largely consistent with last winter, according to the Monthly Market Briefing from the Business Intelligence division of Inntopia, which aggregates data from 28,000 lodging units in 17 mountain destination communities across seven western U.S. states. However, the first three months of the season are a bit more sluggish than usual, and several variables could impact visitation.

As of Oct. 31, winter occupancy on-the-books for November through April is down 1.6 percent compared to last year at this time, with gains in February, March, and April while the first three months are all trending down—most notably in December, which is down 7.7 percent.

Conversely, daily rates for winter are up a modest 1.9 percent for the full winter. April is posting the strongest rate gain, up 11.6 percent—although the number of bookings is relatively small at this point in the season.

Higher rates are offsetting the somewhat lower winter occupancy, so properties are currently seeing a modest 0.3 percent increase in winter revenues.

Current conditions, particularly a shift in the school breaks over the Christmas holidays and some continued price sensitivity, are impacting early bookings, according to the report.

“Pricing concerns combined with some awkward school holiday breaks, and some snow hangover memories from last year, are posing some early season challenges heading into the season,” said Tom Foley, senior vice president of business intelligence for Inntopia. “But with November comes the first real snowfalls and a slew of opening days across the industry, shifting bookings from the economically reticent to, in a perfect world, the snow-driven and passionate.”

In respect to holiday timing, a late Thanksgiving is pulling overall November occupancy down nearly 10 percent. In addition, 45 percent more students will be in school through Dec. 20 this year compared to last, making pre-Christmas travel problematic for families. With students out of school into the first week of January, there is a strong opportunity for growth in that week, although the data isn’t currently showing any booking gains for that week in January.

In terms of price sensitivity, the brief reports a continued correlation between daily rates and occupancy. For December through March, properties asking for higher rates are reporting lower occupancy. Properties with slightly lower rates are seeing a slight uptick in occupancy.

Also among the factors at play is the presidential election. “This year we had the usual angst of a presidential election that typically causes consumers to be cautious—and creates another barrier to booking activity,” said Foley. But, the brief advised, recovery from election anxiety typically tends to mitigate quickly as life returns to the familiar.

“The summer season ended on a high note, and the victory comes largely from excellent rate management in the face of ongoing consumer reticence about rising rates,” said Foley, adding that after a soft start to the summer season, there was a 2.5 percent increase in occupancy that when coupled with a 2.5 percent increase in ADR, delivered a comfortable 5 percent increase in revenues for the season.

“Stability was the story for much of the summer for both occupancy and rates, but winter is looking less certain,” said Foley. “Uncertainties remain about the economy, the new administration, and price sensitivity. But as always, abundant and consistent snowfall, or a lack of it, will play a considerable role in how the winter season unfolds.”