SAM Magazine—Winter Park, Colo., April 18, 2023—Widespread snowstorms in March had skiers and riders eagerly booking end-of-season Western mountain vacations, according to the monthly Market Briefing from DestiMetrics, part of the business intelligence division of Inntopia. But the summer season is headed in an entirely different direction, the Briefing warned, as the economy is finally starting to rattle the confidence and vacation planning of summer mountain travelers.

DestiMetrics data are drawn from lodging properties in 17 mountain communities across Colorado, Utah, California, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho, and comprise 55 percent of the available rental units in those communities.

Spring stats. Even with March's heavy snows, occupancy for the month was down 3.3 percent, while the average daily rate (ADR) was up a modest 2.7 percent compared to March 2022. That led to a .6 percent decline in aggregated revenues. Compared to the last full pre-pandemic season of 2018-19, occupancy was down 2.8 percent for the month, while ADR was up 44.8 percent—much higher than the rate of inflation.

For the full winter season, November through April, on-the-books occupancy for November through April declined 0.3 percent, and ADR rose 6.2 percent, to provide a 5.9 percent increase in revenues over last year. 

Summer looks less rosy. “Beginning in May,  occupancy is down sharply, and those declines are extending through September at this point,” cautioned Tom Foley, senior vice president of business intelligence for Inntopia. “We’re seeing the deepest declines since early 2020.”

Bookings made during March for arrival in the early summer showed declines of 7.4 percent for May, 11.4 percent for June, and 17.2 percent for July compared to last year at this time. 

As of March 31, total bookings for the upcoming summer, May through October, are down 13.5 percent compared to last year at this time. With ADR up just 6.8 percent, revenue is down substantially—7.8 percent. Compared to four years ago at this time, on-the-books occupancy is down 9.9 percent, with double-digit declines in the four months from May through August.

This trend, along with the months-long cooldown in inflation, "could force the hand of destination travel suppliers, such as lodging properties and other attractions, who have been raising and maintaining historically high rates nearly two years," Foley said. He added, "The data has clearly been pointing to some significant consequences in bookings and occupancy for the past 14 months—mainly showing up as shorter stays and fewer bookings."

The drop in length-of-stay has been attributed to waning pent-up demand, employees returning to their workplaces, and lodging rates remaining historically high. 

With bookings for summer well below last year's level at this time, "the lodging community will need to get creative pretty soon with add-on value or enticing rates to overcome consumer caution—which appears to have finally arrived in mountain travel,” Foley concluded.