SAM Magazine-Denver, Dec. 24, 2008-Consumers are holding off on booking vacations to destination resorts, waiting till the last moment to make sure conditions are good and to get the best possible deal, according to Ralf Garrison of MTRiP, the travel tracking clearinghouse.

MTRiP data show that bookings slowed dramatically last month. For the 250 lodging properties that provide advance data to MTRiP, bookings through November were 19.5 percent behind year-ago totals. Bookings had declined just 13 percent through October.

Worse, the pace of reservations was slowing. The number of reservations taken in November was down 25 percent from November 2007. Those reservations were made with shorter lead times, too, as consumers waited until the last minute to make plans. "That suggests that this game is far from over," Garrison said. Resorts and properties that discount aggressively over the rest of the season "could get more than the lion's share of those who can be moved. There's never been a more important time to have the right offer at the right place at the right time."

What is the right price? Lodging rates through November dropped 3.7 percent, the first time rates have declined since MTRiP started tracking them in 2004. That is likely to continue. "Rates will come down further; we're seeing a lot more discounting," Garrison said.

Garrison expects discounting and last-minute booking to remain strong trends. "Airfares are dropping, so are lodging prices, so no one has any reason to book in advance. We're teaching guests to wait," he said. As a result, bookings 30 to 60 days out are weak. The 15 to 30-day window looks better, he added, as local folks can make last-minute decisions. This is benefitting resorts that are closer to their major markets.

One area of weakness has been international visits. Internationals have been an important and growing slice of the destination pie, but they are cutting back as the world economy slows and the strengthening dollar makes U.S. destinations more expensive. \